Monero futures open interest has risen above $300 million as XMR rebounds past $600, bringing the derivatives market close to levels last seen before January’s steep sell-off. A similar buildup of leveraged positions preceded a major price collapse earlier this year.
The growing exposure to leveraged Monero (XMR) futures positions has raised concerns about the possibility of a sharp and sudden market move.
Monero is a privacy-oriented cryptocurrency that makes transaction tracing difficult. With a market capitalization of around $10.9 billion, it is the second-largest privacy-focused digital asset by market value.
Data from SoSoValue shows that the notional open interest in Monero futures, representing the dollar value of outstanding contracts, has climbed beyond $300 million. The total is nearing the January high of approximately $320 million. Futures contracts allow traders to speculate on price movements without holding the underlying cryptocurrency. Open interest has crossed the $300 million mark only a few times, with every instance occurring this year.
Crypto analyst Doctor Profit, who operates under a pseudonym, warned that the current setup could lead to substantial liquidations. “The last Time we reached that amount of Open Interest was in Jan 2026. Monero Crashed 66% in the next 20 days. I Smell a very big Liquidation Event on XMR,” the analyst wrote. Doctor Profit previously identified Bitcoin’s market peak in 2025 and shifted toward accumulation in July this year.
Open interest can be tracked in dollar terms or by counting the number of coins represented by outstanding contracts. Each measurement provides a different view of market activity. Dollar-denominated open interest reflects the current value of outstanding positions, allowing comparisons between Monero and other crypto derivatives markets. Because liquidation data is typically expressed in dollars, a higher notional value may also signal the potential for greater forced selling.
The number of outstanding Monero contracts is rising as well. Coin-denominated open interest has reached 515.73K XMR, its highest level in five weeks, compared with approximately 400K XMR just one week earlier.
Liquidations happen when exchanges automatically close traders’ positions after losses reach specified thresholds. Futures trading often involves leverage, allowing participants to control positions worth substantially more than the initial margin they deposit.
While leverage can magnify returns when prices move in a trader’s favor, it also increases the risks associated with adverse market movements. If losses erode the required margin, exchanges may forcibly close positions to prevent losses from exceeding the collateral available.
Traders betting on rising prices, known as long-position holders, face liquidation when an asset’s price declines. These forced closures can intensify selling pressure, especially when bullish bets account for a large share of the market. In heavily leveraged conditions, even a relatively small price drop can trigger successive liquidations, potentially accelerating the decline.
Monero experienced a similar setup in January, when open interest reached a record high alongside a rising price, pointing to a crowded market of bullish positions. XMR peaked near $790 on Jan. 14 before dropping below $300 during the first week of February. Coinglass data indicated that the sell-off included several million dollars in long-position liquidations.
Current market conditions show some similarities, with open interest expanding as Monero’s price advances. XMR has recently climbed above $600, reaching its highest price level since January.
However, the increase in leveraged exposure does not guarantee another major crash. Whether the growing concentration of futures positions will trigger widespread liquidations depends on subsequent price movements, market positioning and the extent of leverage traders are using.
