XRP is hovering near $1.51 after declining about 5% over the past week, while speculation about a potential BlackRock spot XRP ETF has returned. The immediate focus is whether demand for existing XRP investment products is strong enough to attract another major issuer as the token approaches a critical support zone.
The short-term price structure centers on $1.45 to the downside and $1.55-$1.56 to the upside. A sustained move through either level would provide clearer evidence about the next direction. XRP is still about 59% below its $3.65 record high reached in July 2025.
The seven existing U.S. spot XRP ETFs collectively controlled approximately $1.77 billion in assets and held about 1.18 billion XRP, representing roughly 1.9% of the token’s circulating supply. Following withdrawals, cumulative investment stood near $1.79 billion, while investor contributions increased by around $76 million over the previous week.
The size of the current market may also factor into any decision by BlackRock. With a typical annual management fee of 0.25%, $1.77 billion in assets would translate into roughly $4.4 million in annual fees across the seven issuers, before those fees are shared among them. A new fund could compete by offering a lower fee, but doing so would further shrink the revenue pool relative to the much larger scale of BlackRock’s existing ETF operations.
Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, has cited client demand, market capitalization, liquidity, market maturity and portfolio fit as factors the firm considers when evaluating crypto ETF launches. Client demand has been described as the primary consideration. Even a registration statement would only indicate that an application had been submitted; it would not mean the fund would immediately purchase XRP, since spot ETFs generally acquire the underlying asset as investors put money into the product.
The supplied market snapshot puts XRP around $1.49-$1.50. CoinGecko historical data shows UTC closing prices of $1.49 on September 29 and $1.50 on September 28. These are historical reference levels rather than live prices. XRP is therefore testing the support area identified in the short-term setup, but the available data does not establish that the level has failed.
The $1.50 mark is the current pivot, while a break below $1.45 would represent a deeper deterioration in the stated short-term structure. On the other side, a move above $1.55-$1.56 would provide stronger confirmation that buyers are absorbing supply than a brief rebound around $1.50.
There is not enough information in the available data to support additional technical claims based on moving averages or on-chain indicators.
The decline from $1.57 on September 25 to $1.49 at the September 29 UTC close shows that the support test followed a relatively sharp pullback rather than a prolonged period of sideways trading around $1.50. However, that decline alone cannot determine whether the support level will ultimately hold.
As a result, XRP’s price reaction around the key thresholds currently provides more concrete information than the renewed BlackRock speculation.
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg said in January 2026 that he speculated BlackRock could file for an XRP ETF by late 2026 or early 2027. BlackRock has not confirmed that timeline, and the primary report states that no application or launch has been announced. The potential BlackRock XRP ETF should therefore be treated as speculation rather than an imminent confirmed event.
BlackRock’s existing connection to Ripple does not provide confirmation either. The asset manager accepts Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin as collateral for BUIDL, its tokenized Treasury product. RLUSD and XRP are different assets, and the arrangement does not constitute evidence that BlackRock is preparing a spot XRP ETF.
For now, XRP’s market structure is defined more clearly by the $1.45-$1.56 range than by the BlackRock rumors. Existing ETF demand is measurable, but the current asset base and estimated fee pool do not establish that BlackRock will launch a competing product. The next meaningful confirmation would come from a formal filing or a decisive break above or below the current range.
