Bitcoin’s long-term price history suggests that higher bond yields have not consistently dictated its performance, although sudden swings in bond-market volatility can still weigh on crypto in the short run.
The usual market argument is that rising government bond yields are negative for bitcoin because they make traditional fixed-income assets more attractive. Yet historical data shows that BTC has maintained little sustained correlation with bond yields across most of its trading history.
The issue returned to the forefront Wednesday when the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged 15 basis points to more than 5.13%, reaching its highest level since 2007. The move was accompanied by increases in yields across several major global bond markets.
Higher yields theoretically raise the opportunity cost of owning assets that do not produce income, including bitcoin and gold. Investors may therefore have an incentive to move funds into bonds as yields increase.
Bitcoin’s historical relationship with yields tells a different story.
CoinDesk data shows a 90-day correlation of -0.18 between bitcoin’s daily returns and daily changes in the U.S. 10-year yield. The figure is close to zero, suggesting little meaningful relationship. The correlation was -0.06 over 180 days and -0.03 over one year. BTC has likewise shown limited correlation with bond yields in other major economies.
Bitcoin Offers a Different Exposure
Bitcoin’s limited relationship with bonds can make the asset useful as a source of portfolio diversification. Its price does not consistently follow the same rate-driven patterns as traditional duration assets.
Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, told CoinDesk that bitcoin’s near-zero correlation with Treasury yields represents a potential portfolio advantage. She said the data indicates BTC is not simply behaving like a rates or duration asset, noting that the 90-day correlation with the U.S. 10-year yield was recently around -0.17 and has periodically moved even closer to zero.
Bitcoin’s performance since 2021 further highlights the disconnect. The cryptocurrency has risen 191% over that period and reached a record $126,000 last October. Meanwhile, 10-year yields increased by more than 500 basis points in both the U.K. and France and by more than 400 basis points in the U.S., Australia, Germany and Italy.
Japan’s 10-year yield rose 296 basis points, while Switzerland’s increased 105 basis points. China’s yields declined during the period as the country struggled with deflation.
Volatility Can Still Hit Bitcoin
The lack of a strong long-term yield correlation does not prevent bitcoin from being affected by turmoil in bond markets. Sudden increases in bond volatility can tighten financial conditions even when the underlying yield level is not the primary issue.
Sharp Treasury-market moves can raise financing costs, tighten credit conditions and encourage investors to reduce exposure to riskier assets. The Treasury market’s importance to global finance means volatility can quickly spread into other markets.
The MOVE Index, a gauge of expected volatility in U.S. Treasury securities, jumped 21% Wednesday to 95, its highest level since April 1. Bitcoin declined from roughly $87,200 to $83,500 during the session. The move may also have reflected profit-taking after the cryptocurrency’s recent advance.
A sustained rise in Treasury volatility could therefore create further pressure on BTC even if higher yields themselves do not establish a lasting bearish relationship.
U.S. Economic Data Drives Yield Jump
Wednesday’s rise in yields was largely tied to stronger U.S. economic data rather than concerns over government finances.
S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI increased to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, reaching its highest level since July 2021. The reading indicated that business activity was expanding at its fastest pace in more than five years, while inflationary pressures were also building.
The data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to continue raising rates after its 25-basis-point increase in September. Both two-year and 10-year Treasury yields climbed following the report.
The move extended beyond U.S. bonds. France’s yield increased by more than the U.S. 10-year on Wednesday, while the U.K. recorded a similarly large move.
Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the IIF, said Italy and Greece were also affected. Writing on Substack Wednesday, Brooks said strong U.S. data was followed by increased market pressure on countries viewed as fiscally vulnerable.
Brooks said markets have been scrutinizing countries with heavy debt burdens for some time. Statista data puts Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio above 200% at the end of 2025, compared with 123.8% for the U.S., 115% for France, 102% for the U.K. and 100% for China.
Switzerland had a substantially lower federal debt ratio of 16%. Its comparatively moderate increase in 10-year yields has helped support views among some analysts that the Swiss franc is emerging as a haven currency and could increasingly take the role traditionally associated with the Japanese yen in carry trades.
For bitcoin, however, the longer-term evidence points to a different dynamic. Fiscal concerns, economic growth and inflation can influence bond yields and fiat currencies across major economies, but those factors have not produced a consistent relationship with BTC’s price over the years.
