Bitcoin is struggling to establish a clear direction as oil prices push above $90 and surging bond yields weigh on global risk assets and gold.
The macro pressures currently hurting traditional markets have so far failed to generate comparable selling in bitcoin. BTC’s relative resilience stands out as equities and gold retreat, although continued strength in the U.S. dollar could put that performance to the test.
WTI crude futures have climbed past $90 and were up almost 9% on the week, according to TradingView. More expensive oil can intensify inflationary pressures, potentially reducing the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates.
Bond markets are facing pressure as investors grow increasingly concerned about government finances. Longer-term sovereign yields have risen across developed markets, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield adding 10 basis points to 4.81%, its highest reading since 2023. Higher yields generally tighten financial conditions, making borrowing more expensive and potentially curbing appetite for risk.
Equity markets have already begun reflecting those concerns. The S&P 500 declined for a third consecutive session Monday and touched its lowest level in four weeks. Asian shares were also lower, with the sharp rise in crude prices raising concerns about inflation and growth in countries that depend on imported energy.
Gold has also experienced a significant pullback, dropping to around $4,300 an ounce from nearly $4,700 in less than a week.
Bitcoin has been comparatively steady. After falling about 3% Friday to below $77,000, BTC has shown little follow-through from sellers. CoinDesk data indicates that prices have remained volatile but largely confined to a $76,000-$80,000 range.
That ability to hold up despite unfavorable macro conditions could be viewed as a sign of underlying bullish sentiment. Rising yields may be reflecting fiscal concerns rather than stronger economic activity, potentially encouraging investors to seek scarce assets such as bitcoin as an alternative to traditional fiat-based financial markets.
Still, bitcoin has another major variable to contend with: the dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index has reached 99.67 and is attempting to extend a gain of almost 1% from last week.
The DXY is also sitting near a significant long-term bullish trendline that stretches back to the index’s 2011 low. A successful rebound from that support could trigger another wave of dollar buying.
That matters for bitcoin because the two assets have historically shown an inverse relationship. A stronger dollar can therefore create additional pressure on BTC.
The importance of the DXY trendline goes beyond technical analysis alone. Widely followed support and resistance levels can influence trader behavior because market participants frequently use them to establish positions, exits and stop-loss orders. If enough traders react around the same level, their combined activity can reinforce the trendline and amplify the resulting price move.
