Bitcoin entered September under pressure, slipping about 1% to below $78,000 as traders braced for a historically weak month known in crypto circles as “Rektember.”
September has been Bitcoin’s worst-performing month on average since 2013, with BTC posting an average decline of roughly 3% and finishing the month higher only five times.
Still, recent history offers a more positive signal. Bitcoin has posted gains in each of the past three Septembers. After a 25% jump in August — its strongest monthly performance since November 2024 — however, the cryptocurrency may be due for a period of consolidation or a potential correction.
The macroeconomic backdrop is becoming less supportive. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone during his Jackson Hole speech last Friday, pointing to continued inflation concerns. His comments helped trigger a sell-off in global bonds, pushing several sovereign yields to fresh cycle highs.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.784%, while markets began pricing in a 66% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the Sept. 16 meeting. Investors are also expecting the possibility of another increase before year-end, which could lift the federal funds target range to 4.00%-4.25% by the end of 2026.
Higher borrowing costs generally weigh on risk assets by tightening financial conditions and strengthening the dollar. Bitcoin is facing broader market pressure as well, while gold dropped more than 2% on Tuesday.
Geopolitical risks are adding to the uncertainty. Ongoing U.S. strikes against Iran have increased tensions in the Middle East, helping push WTI crude oil up about 2% over the past 24 hours to $88 a barrel, its highest level since late July.
September has traditionally been challenging for stocks too. Since 1975, it has been the only month in which the S&P 500 has recorded a negative average return.
For Bitcoin, the combination of a large August rally, elevated Treasury yields and growing expectations for higher interest rates could make September a critical test of its recent momentum.
