Here’s a fresh, clean rewrite with a slightly sharper analytical tone:
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick continues to stand by his long-term Bitcoin projection of $500,000 before Donald Trump leaves office, even as BTC trades just above $64,000—roughly 49% below its October 2025 peak of $126,198.
While the gap between the current price and that target is striking, the more critical issue is whether the underlying thesis still holds—particularly after the bank failed to meet its earlier $200,000 forecast for 2025.
Trump’s renewed support for Bitcoin, expressed during a July 6 White House event, has brought renewed attention to Standard Chartered’s outlook. He framed his endorsement in geopolitical terms, arguing that falling behind in digital assets would put the U.S. at a strategic disadvantage.
Highlighting Bitcoin’s influence, Trump suggested that its capital flows are widely underestimated, adding that if the U.S. does not take the lead, China will. This framing adds a national security dimension to crypto policy, making it more durable than a purely market-driven stance.
China’s position reinforces this narrative. Since 2021, it has maintained strict bans on crypto trading and mining while advancing its own central bank digital currency. Trump’s argument positions Bitcoin adoption as a question of global competitiveness rather than just financial innovation.
This perspective directly supports Standard Chartered’s bullish case. The bank’s forecast is rooted in expectations of clearer regulation under a pro-crypto administration, alongside growing institutional participation through spot Bitcoin ETFs—factors viewed as long-term structural drivers.
Kendrick, who leads digital asset research at the bank, first introduced the $500,000 target in early 2025, linking it to anticipated regulatory tailwinds. He had also projected Bitcoin could reach $200,000 within that year.
That milestone was not achieved. Bitcoin instead peaked at $126,198 before pulling back. Despite this miss, Standard Chartered has not revised its longer-term outlook, maintaining confidence in institutional inflows, sovereign adoption, and Bitcoin’s fixed supply as core pillars of its thesis.
For now, $500,000 remains the bank’s stated target within the current political cycle. However, with Bitcoin still trading near $64,000 amid macro and geopolitical uncertainty, the path to that level remains steep. Near-term price performance will likely determine whether the broader thesis begins to validate.
Not all analysts agree. Some suggest a more conservative long-term range in the low-to-mid six figures, while cautioning that additional downside could still occur before any sustained upward trend develops.
