Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $59,800 at the start of the week, while Solana gained around 2%, although derivatives positioning and technical signals continue to point to lingering downside risk.
Crypto markets remain in a fragile position heading into the final stretch of the month, with BTC still below $60,000 and ETH trading under $1,600. Bitcoin has now shed more than 50% from its October peak, with analysts cautioning that further weakness may still lie ahead.
Even so, BTC posted a modest gain since the start of the UTC day, up 0.6% to $59,800. Despite this bounce, the broader market structure remains firmly bearish.
Solana has rebounded after briefly hitting its lowest level since late 2023 earlier this month, climbing more than 13% since Thursday and about 2% overnight.
U.S. equity futures also opened higher, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 1% and S&P 500 futures rising 0.75%, though both indices remain in a broader downtrend from mid-June highs.
Derivatives positioning
More than $200 million in futures positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for most of the losses. In the most recent four-hour window, nearly $20 million in liquidations skewed toward shorts, indicating BTC’s move back toward $60,000 caught bearish traders off guard.
Overall futures activity remains subdued. Bitcoin open interest has slipped back to early-month levels, fully erasing Friday’s brief spike to 775,000 BTC, signaling reduced appetite for leverage.
Ether shows a similar pattern, with open interest hovering around 14.2 million ETH.
Solana stands out with relatively elevated positioning at 72.7 million SOL, just below its recent peak of over 76 million, suggesting room for continued volatility.
AVAX rallied more than 5% last week, decoupling from bitcoin’s weakness, but open interest has continued to decline to 38.07 million tokens—its lowest since April—raising doubts over the strength of the move.
The 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta remains broadly bearish across major tokens. With the exception of TRX, XMR, and ZEC, most top assets show negative readings, indicating persistent sell pressure driven by market orders.
Volatility signals offer a more stabilizing backdrop. The BVIV index, tracking BTC’s 30-day implied volatility, fell 5% to 47%, pausing its recent uptrend and hinting at expectations for calmer conditions—often associated with slow, steady spot-led moves.
Options markets continue to lean defensive. On Deribit, BTC and ETH options remain heavily skewed toward puts. The $60,000 BTC put now holds nearly $1 billion in notional open interest, nearly matching the $1.11 billion concentrated at the $80,000 call. These levels have anchored positioning for months. If BTC breaks lower, the next major cluster sits at $50,000, with about $712 million in open interest.
In shorter-dated activity, traders have been selling strangles in the July 10 expiry HYPE options on Derive, a strategy that benefits from low volatility and range-bound trading.
Token trends
Altcoins remain largely directionless, tracking bitcoin’s lead as speculative appetite stays muted while traders wait for confirmation of the next major move.
Privacy coins DASH and ZEC rose more than 2% on Monday after steep declines of 18%–30% over the prior two weeks, suggesting a relief bounce rather than a sustained recovery.
PUMP fell 1.5% since midnight, alongside AI token FET, which also traded lower.
CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” index remains at 49/100, unchanged for much of June, reflecting a market still heavily driven by bitcoin’s direction.
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