A stronger U.S. dollar, combined with a more hawkish Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh, is expected to keep pressure on crypto markets through the summer.
Bitcoin (BTC) likely has more downside ahead before the current bear cycle reaches its end, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen.
Thielen’s view is largely driven by the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, which has historically weighed on bitcoin. The outlook is further supported by the Fed’s shift toward tighter policy, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate hike rather than a cut—boosting the dollar while pressuring risk assets.
That said, Thielen does not expect the weakness to persist indefinitely.
Three indicators—global liquidity trends, the macro calendar, and bitcoin’s seasonal patterns—point to a potential market bottom forming between late August and October.
A model tracking changes in global liquidity, which correctly signaled a buying opportunity in March and an exit in April, identifies late August as the next key turning point. Seasonal data also shows September has typically been a weak month for bitcoin, often followed by a stronger October.
This timeframe coincides with key macro events, including Federal Reserve meetings in September and October, U.S. midterm elections, and the Treasury’s quarterly refinancing announcement in early November.
Taken together, Thielen expects bitcoin to fall below $60,000 and potentially test $55,000 before establishing a cycle low.
“The message is to stay patient for now and focus on late August,” he said.
