A wallet created just days earlier reportedly turned about $4 million into nearly $9 million in profit by betting against Spain, prompting on-chain analysts to debate whether the move was luck or access to privileged information.
In a stunning World Cup upset, debutants Cabo Verde held heavy favorites Spain to a 0–0 draw on Monday, delivering massive payouts for traders who had bet against the pre-match odds, which strongly favored Spain at around 1:10.
The outcome produced two of the most extreme results on Polymarket this tournament. According to data reviewed by CoinDesk, a newly created wallet generated over $9 million in gains within hours after starting with roughly $4 million. In contrast, another trader lost close to $1 million on a position that would have returned only about $85,000 if Spain had won.
Cabo Verde, appearing in its first World Cup and lacking high-profile stars, faced a Spain side widely viewed as a tournament contender and reigning European champion. Veteran goalkeeper Vozinha, 40, was named player of the match after a standout performance.
On-chain analytics firm Lookonchain identified the winning wallet, “fishalive,” which was created this month. It reportedly placed two key bearish bets on Spain: one on Spain failing to win outright and another on Cabo Verde covering a +2.5 goal spread.
Both positions paid out after the match ended 0–0, with public records showing approximately $4.7 million in winnings from the outright market and $8.5 million from the spread, resulting in a single-day profit of about $9 million.
On the losing side, a trader using the handle “betoor619” lost nearly $1 million after betting on Spain to win when the market implied a 92% probability. The potential payout in that scenario would have been only around $85,000, reflecting the low upside of heavily favored bets.
Historical data shows that account had previously never recorded a gain or loss exceeding $9,000 in a single trade, underscoring the scale of the blowup.
Polymarket is a prediction platform where users trade shares tied to real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting implied probabilities and settlement handled in USDC on-chain.
Because trades are executed through crypto wallets without identity verification, users operate pseudonymously, a feature that has drawn criticism from regulators compared with traditional sportsbooks that require customer identification.
The Spain match alone generated about $64 million in trading volume, while the platform’s World Cup market has reached roughly $2.4 billion—surpassing activity from this year’s Super Bowl and trailing only major political event cycles like last year’s U.S. election.
While blockchain transparency allows every trade to be publicly tracked, it does not reveal identity, meaning observers could watch the “fishalive” wallet rapidly multiply its capital in real time without knowing who was behind it.
That anonymity, combined with the scale and timing of the trade, has now made the mysterious wallet one of the most closely watched accounts on the platform.
