Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s potential resignation has sparked intense speculation, with dueling reports from two of Canada’s largest newspapers suggesting his departure could come as early as Monday. However, bettors on Polymarket are more cautious about the timeline, questioning whether Trudeau will step down so quickly.
While contracts on Polymarket related to Trudeau’s resignation are not new, two major contracts with volumes in the low six-figures are asking whether he will leave by February or April, with another one from December wondering if opposition parties will push for an election by spring.
The speculation over Trudeau’s resignation intensified Monday following reports from the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail. The Star reported that Trudeau’s resignation could happen as early as Monday, while the Globe and Mail, which was first to break the news, stated it would likely come before Wednesday’s national Liberal Party caucus meeting.
Despite these reports, Polymarket bettors appear skeptical about the timing. A contract predicting Trudeau’s resignation by Monday has just over $45,000 in volume, but only gives it a 24% chance of happening. Another contract, asking if he will step down by Wednesday, gives a 72% chance, though it has a smaller volume of around $10,000. A third contract, focused on whether he will resign by Friday, places the likelihood at 80%.
While the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail have sources suggesting an imminent resignation, Reuters, citing a different source, reports that Trudeau has not yet made a decision.
Polling data reflects a challenging position for Trudeau, with Angus Reid giving him a 22% approval rating. Polling aggregators show that if an election were held today, Trudeau’s Liberals would lose dramatically, securing only 46 seats, while the Conservatives would take 225, securing a majority in Canada’s Parliament.
Meanwhile, on Polymarket, there is also a 3% chance being bet on that Canada could join the United States as its 51st state by July — an idea that originally gained traction as a joke on President-elect Donald Trump’s social media platforms.
