Bitcoin’s latest recovery is facing a growing demand imbalance, casting doubt on the durability of the recent price rebound.
Data from CryptoQuant shows the 30-day apparent demand indicator has fallen to -147,000 BTC, marking its weakest level since December 2025. This decline comes even as bitcoin holds in the mid-$70,000 range following a bounce from April lows near $65,000.
The metric tracks the difference between incoming supply — including newly mined coins and older bitcoin re-entering circulation — and the amount being absorbed by the market. When the indicator is positive, demand is strong enough to absorb supply. When negative, it signals that more coins are entering the market than buyers are willing to take on.
That imbalance is now evident in the current rally.
Although bitcoin has recovered significantly from its April trough, the move has not been supported by strong spot market demand, which is typically a key ingredient for sustained upward momentum. Earlier this month, the metric had improved from around -91,000 BTC in April to near -11,000 BTC, suggesting a near balance between supply and demand. However, the latest drop back to -147,000 BTC indicates that improvement has reversed.
This suggests that the recent price recovery has been largely driven by derivatives markets rather than spot accumulation. Such rallies tend to be more fragile, as leveraged positions in futures can unwind quickly when market conditions shift. In contrast, spot buying reflects actual capital deployment and tends to provide more stable support for prices.
While this doesn’t necessarily point to an immediate downturn, it does highlight a vulnerability. Weak demand can persist while prices move sideways, but any further upside will likely require renewed spot buying interest.
If that demand fails to materialize, the $70,000 level becomes increasingly important. CryptoQuant identifies this area as the short-term holder realized price — a point where recent buyers’ unrealized profits are largely erased, potentially reducing selling pressure but also limiting bullish momentum.
