Spot bitcoin ETFs are seeing their most consistent inflow streak in months, but underlying blockchain data suggests the rally is already being used as an opportunity for profit-taking—echoing patterns seen at prior local tops.
U.S. spot funds tied to Bitcoin BTC have recorded eight straight days of inflows through April 23, totaling $2.1 billion, according to SoSoValue. The streak is the longest since October 2025, when a similar run coincided with bitcoin’s surge to its $126,000 peak.
Momentum remained strong on April 23, with about $223 million in fresh inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT led the charge, contributing roughly $167 million, while Fidelity Investments’s FBTC was the only major product to register outflows, shedding close to $17 million.
Bitcoin has climbed from approximately $68,000 to $77,000 during this period, marking a gain of about 12% and closely tracking ETF demand. Since launch, cumulative inflows into spot ETFs have reached $58 billion, with total assets under management rising to $102 billion—around 6.5% of bitcoin’s market capitalization.
However, ETF flows alone don’t capture the full market dynamic.
Glassnode data shows bitcoin has reclaimed its “True Market Mean” near $78,100, a key level reflecting the average cost basis of actively traded supply. This marks the first reclaim since mid-January and is typically viewed as a transition toward stronger market conditions.
The next level of interest lies just above. The short-term holder cost basis—currently around $80,100—represents the average purchase price for investors who entered the market within the last 155 days. A move above this threshold would push a majority of these holders into profit.
Historically, that has been a turning point. In previous instances this cycle, rallies above the short-term holder cost basis have triggered selling, as investors take advantage of the opportunity to exit positions. The same setup now appears to be forming again.
On-chain metrics reinforce the risk. Short-term holders are currently realizing profits at a pace of roughly $4.4 million per hour, significantly above the $1.5 million level that has preceded each local top this year.
At the same time, derivatives positioning suggests the market remains skewed toward the downside. Funding rates in perpetual futures are still negative, indicating that short sellers are paying long positions—evidence of persistent bearish sentiment. This imbalance recently fueled a short squeeze that briefly pushed bitcoin toward $78,000 before geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz led to a pullback.
Another squeeze, combined with steady ETF inflows and signs of improving spot demand on offshore venues, could help push bitcoin toward the $80,000 level. The key question is whether that level can be sustained, or if it once again becomes a point where selling pressure intensifies.
A similar pattern emerged in March, when a shorter inflow streak coincided with a local high. This time, flows have been largely driven by IBIT, while other ETF issuers have shown mixed results. The structure isn’t identical, but the parallels remain notable.
ETF demand continues to provide strong support—but it may also be acting as an exit channel for short-term holders. Price action around $80,000 will likely determine whether the rally extends or begins to fade.
