Bitcoin Could Slide Another 30% as Bear Market Deepens, Investment Firm Says
Bitcoin has moved firmly into what some analysts describe as the most intense phase of its current downturn, and further losses could be on the horizon. According to CK Zheng, founder of crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital, the leading cryptocurrency could fall by another 30% in 2026.
Zheng said bitcoin is already clearly trading in deep bear market territory and pointed to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, along with the historically reliable four-year bitcoin cycle, as major factors that could push prices lower.
“Bitcoin’s price is convincingly in deep bear market territory now,” Zheng said in comments to CoinDesk. “We expect another 30% drop during 2026 as the Iran war has started.”
The cryptocurrency has already suffered a steep decline from its previous peak. After reaching an all-time high of more than $126,000 in October last year, bitcoin has lost close to half of its value. At the time of writing, it was trading around $68,000, according to CoinDesk data.
The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle
Many participants in the crypto market closely follow bitcoin’s so-called four-year cycle — a pattern where prices surge, reach a peak, and then decline before eventually recovering. This cycle is closely tied to the bitcoin halving, a programmed event that reduces the rate at which new coins are created.
The latest halving occurred in April 2024, cutting the mining reward to 3.125 BTC per block. When bitcoin first launched, miners received 50 BTC for each block, but the reward has been reduced over time through four halving events.
Historically, bitcoin tends to reach its price peak roughly 16 to 18 months after a halving takes place. A bear market typically follows, lasting about a year before the next recovery cycle begins.
Since bitcoin reached its most recent high in October — around 18 months after the April 2024 halving — the current downturn appears to be following this historical pattern. If the cycle continues as it has in previous years, the bear market may still have room to deepen.
Investor Behavior Reinforces the Pattern
Zheng believes the four-year cycle remains difficult to break largely because of the behavior of retail investors.
Individual investors often enter the market during periods of excitement and rapidly rising prices, then sell during downturns when fear spreads. This pattern of buying into hype and exiting during panic reinforces the boom-and-bust rhythm that has defined crypto markets for more than a decade.
“The momentum of the four-year crypto cycle is strengthening and is extremely difficult to break because of the psychological behavior of individual investors,” Zheng said.
Because of this dynamic, Zheng argues that bitcoin still behaves more like a speculative asset than a traditional safe-haven investment such as gold.
Institutional Influence Still Limited
While institutional interest in bitcoin has increased in recent years, Zheng believes its impact on the broader market remains relatively small.
According to him, the combined size of crypto exchange-traded funds and companies holding digital assets as treasury reserves represents only about 10% of the overall crypto market.
He also warned that some companies that accumulated bitcoin could face pressure if the bear market continues. Firms that financed their purchases with debt may be forced to sell crypto holdings to meet repayment obligations, potentially adding further downward pressure on prices.
“The total size of crypto ETFs and digital asset treasury companies is only around 10% of the entire crypto market,” Zheng said. “Some of these firms could be forced to sell crypto assets to meet debt servicing requirements during this bear market, which may create a vicious cycle.”
