A Bitcoin whale has transferred 438.37 BTC, worth approximately $35.38 million, to Coinbase Prime, realizing a significant loss compared with the price at which the coins were originally withdrawn. According to Arkham Intelligence, the transaction occurred early on October 28, around 16 months after the wallet received 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody at an average price of $105,271. The transfer highlights continued whale activity as Bitcoin struggles to maintain its position during a disappointing October.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $81,445, up 2.2% over the past 24 hours but still down 2.5% since the start of the month. With only three days left in October, the cryptocurrency faces a narrow window to recover its losses and avoid another negative monthly close.
The whale’s move has raised questions about whether large investors are preparing to sell and which upcoming developments could determine Bitcoin’s next direction.
Bitcoin News: Are Large Holders Preparing to Sell?
The latest transaction confirms that one significant Bitcoin holder has moved coins to an exchange, although overall exchange activity does not yet indicate a clear market-wide selling trend.
The wallet, identified as bc1q9kaa…l77q, had remained inactive since June 24, 2025, when it received 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody. At 00:48 UTC on October 28, it transferred 438.37 BTC to a Coinbase Prime deposit address. The wallet still holds 177.03 BTC, according to blockchain records.
Bitcoin deposits to exchanges are often viewed as a possible precursor to selling because they make assets more accessible for trading. However, the wallet owner has not explained the purpose of the transfer. Coinbase Prime also serves institutional clients that use their holdings for lending and hedging, so an exchange deposit does not necessarily mean an immediate sale.
Meanwhile, broader market data showed a different trend on October 27. Preliminary figures from CryptoQuant indicated that exchanges recorded net outflows of 12,570 BTC, valued at approximately $1.01 billion. This followed net inflows of more than 7,000 BTC the previous day.
Analyst Darkfost also reported that Binance’s 30-day average of whale deposits had dropped from $5.9 billion in late August to $3.8 billion. Retail investor deposits, however, have been rising since September.
These contrasting figures suggest that whale activity remains mixed. While some large holders may be moving coins closer to potential sales, other investors continue to withdraw Bitcoin from exchanges.
Bitcoin Needs to Recover $83,624 to Finish October in the Green
Bitcoin’s October performance has weakened considerably, putting its reputation for seasonal strength under pressure.
BTC began the month at $83,624 on Binance and briefly climbed to $87,220 on October 2. The rally subsequently reversed, with Bitcoin falling to $79,221 on October 24.
To finish October with a gain, Bitcoin must close above its monthly opening price of $83,624. From its current level near $81,445, that would require a recovery of roughly 2.7% before the month ends.
If Bitcoin fails to regain this threshold, 2026 would mark its first consecutive pair of negative October performances in more than a decade. October 2025 ended down 3.9% on Binance, while the only other losing Octobers since 2013 occurred in 2014 and 2018.
The remaining sessions could therefore prove crucial in determining whether BTC stages a late recovery or extends its monthly decline.
Upcoming Events That Could Move Bitcoin
Bitcoin traders face several important catalysts over the coming weeks, beginning with the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
– October 28 — Fed interest rate decision: The central bank is scheduled to release its statement at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. Following September’s 25-basis-point increase to 3.75%–4.00%, Polymarket traders assign a 95% probability to the Fed keeping rates unchanged.
– October 29 — PCE inflation and earnings reports: September’s personal consumption expenditures inflation data will provide another indication of price pressures after the consumer price index rose 3.7% year over year. Coinbase and Strategy are also expected to publish their third-quarter results after the U.S. market closes.
– October 30 — Monthly Bitcoin options expiry: Deribit’s monthly contracts are scheduled to settle at 08:00 UTC. Open interest for the expiry totals 135,452 BTC, worth approximately $11.04 billion and accounting for 34.4% of the platform’s total open interest. The put-call ratio stands at 0.53, while the max-pain level is $78,000.
– November 3 — U.S. midterm elections: The results could influence the future direction of cryptocurrency regulation and the pace of legislation in Congress.
– December 9 — Next Fed meeting: Markets are already pricing in the possibility of another rate increase, with Polymarket assigning a 76.5% probability to a December hike.
Together, these developments could shape investor sentiment, liquidity conditions, and Bitcoin’s price volatility through the end of the year.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Reclaim $83,624?
Bitcoin is trading above its 50-day exponential moving average but has yet to show enough strength to recover its October opening level.
The cryptocurrency recently rebounded from $79,221 and is now trading just above the 50-day EMA at $80,833. Its 200-day EMA sits considerably lower at $76,443, providing another technical reference point if selling pressure intensifies.
Resistance at $83,624: This level represents Bitcoin’s October opening price. A sustained recovery above it would put the cryptocurrency on track to finish the month in positive territory.
Higher resistance at $84,898: This marks the October 21 high, which preceded the recent downward move.
Support at $79,221: The October 24 low remains an important level after holding through three additional price declines during the week.
Bitcoin’s near-term outlook depends on whether buyers can regain control and push BTC above resistance while keeping the October 24 low intact. A break above $83,624 would strengthen the recovery case, while a decline below $79,221 could expose the market to another round of selling.
