Crypto Markets Waver as BTC/JPY Tests Key Pattern; XRP Slides, ETH and SOL Mirror Weakness
Market sentiment is caught between rising expectations for U.S. rate cuts in 2026 and bearish technical signals across major tokens. While lower rates typically support Bitcoin’s bullish narrative, the Japanese yen’s resurgence and breakdown patterns in BTC/JPY, XRP, ETH, and SOL are flashing caution.
BTC/JPY: Descending Triangle Threatens Breakdown
As BTC/USD stagnates below $120,000, analysts are watching the BTC/JPY pair on bitFlyer, where price action is tracing a textbook descending triangle — typically a bearish setup. This formation, characterized by a horizontal support at ¥17,160,000 (~$117,000) and declining highs, suggests mounting selling pressure.
A break below support would likely trigger a deeper pullback. However, if the triangle breaks to the upside, it could set the stage for a move to new all-time highs — especially as traders increasingly bet on Fed rate cuts next year.
According to futures markets, rate cut expectations have surged to 76 basis points for 2026, up from just 25 basis points in April, driven by weakening economic data and sustained fiscal expansion signaled by rising long-term yields.
AI View: BTC/JPY is nearing a pivotal technical decision. A downside break confirms bearish intent; otherwise, bullish momentum could reignite.
Resistance: ¥18,800,000 (~$121,181), $120,000
Support: ¥17,160,000, $116,000, $111,965
Yen Strength Could Cap BTC Gains
A narrowing 30-year U.S.-Japan bond yield spread — now at its lowest since August 2022 — indicates strengthening yen momentum. A JPY rally could weigh on broader risk appetite, including cryptocurrencies, as capital shifts into safer assets.
XRP: Sharp 10% Drop as Bearish Momentum Builds
XRP fell over 10% in a sharp retracement to $2.99 — the 38.2% Fibonacci level from its recent surge off $1.90. Although price briefly rebounded to $3.10, the Guppy moving average indicator and Ichimoku cloud both confirm that momentum has shifted firmly bearish.
If $2.99 fails to hold, the next downside target lies at $2.57, the 61.8% retracement level. A recovery above $3.35 would be needed to reverse the negative bias.
AI View: XRP’s break of both trend and consolidation zones confirms a bearish momentum shift.
Resistance: $3.35, $3.65, $4.00
Support: $2.99, $2.65, $2.57
ETH: Channel Breakdown Suggests Continued Weakness
Ether continues its downtrend within a descending channel on the hourly chart, posting lower highs and lows. A recent bearish crossover between its 50- and 100-hour SMAs, and a weakening 200-hour SMA, point to building downside pressure.
ETH now trades beneath the Ichimoku cloud — a sign that sellers remain in control. Only a clean move above $3,740 would re-establish bullish momentum.
AI View: Watch the 200-hour SMA at $3,593 — a break lower may accelerate declines.
Resistance: $3,740, $4,000, $4,109
Support: $3,593, $3,480, $3,081
Solana Tracks ETH with Similar Downtrend
Solana is exhibiting a similar downward channel as Ether, slipping below the Ichimoku cloud with bearish confirmation from the Guppy indicator. As long as the price remains under the $192 level, the path of least resistance appears lower.
AI View: Any recovery rally may stall at the channel’s upper bound or the lower edge of the cloud.
Resistance: $192, $200, $218
Support: $179, $163 (200-day SMA), $145
Summary:
While rate cut bets in the U.S. are growing, boosting the macro case for crypto, technical patterns across major tokens suggest that near-term pressure remains. Strengthening JPY and bearish chart formations in BTC/JPY, XRP, ETH, and SOL highlight the risk of further downside unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.
