Bitcoin Demand Surges, Eyeing Potential $200K Rally in Q4 – 3/10/2025
Bitcoin’s on-chain data indicates growing demand since July, setting the stage for a potential late-year rally toward $200,000.
According to CryptoQuant, apparent demand is rising by roughly 62,000 BTC per month, mirroring patterns from Q4 2020, 2021, and 2024—periods that saw sharp price increases. Historically, sustained demand growth has provided a foundation for significant rallies.
Whales and ETFs are driving much of this accumulation. Large-holder balances are increasing at an annualized rate of 331,000 BTC, outpacing the 255,000 BTC added in Q4 2024 and the 238,000 BTC in Q4 2020. This contrasts with the 197,000 BTC contraction seen in 2021. ETFs have also contributed, adding 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024—a 71% rise in holdings—and could continue allocating into year-end.
On-chain valuation highlights a key threshold at the Trader’s Realized Price of $116,000. A decisive break above this level would signal a shift into the “BULL” phase of the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, potentially opening a Q4 valuation band of $160,000 to $200,000. This metric compares Bitcoin’s price with the average cost basis of different investor groups, with prices above realized levels reflecting bullish momentum and rising profits.
Market conditions entering October are strikingly similar to last year. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has hovered between 40 and 50, historically marking the edge of bullish territory. In Q4 2024, the index climbed above 50 at the start of the quarter, preceding Bitcoin’s surge from $70,000 to $100,000.
With accumulation strengthening and momentum building, traders are watching closely for a repeat of last year’s late-year rally.
