Citigroup Forecasts Ether Could Slide to $4,300 by Year-End, Citing Layer-2 Growth
Wall Street firm Citigroup (C) has updated its ether (ETH) outlook, projecting a year-end price of $4,300, down from the current $4,515.
This represents the bank’s base-case scenario. Its full forecast is wide-ranging: the bull case targets $6,400, while the bear case sees ETH falling to $2,200.
Citi analysts noted that network activity remains the primary driver of ether’s value. However, much of the recent growth has been concentrated on layer-2 networks, where the contribution to Ethereum’s base-layer value remains uncertain. Citi assumes that only 30% of layer-2 activity factors into ETH’s valuation, implying that current market prices are elevated—likely due to strong inflows and enthusiasm around tokenization and stablecoins.
For context, layer-1 refers to Ethereum’s main blockchain infrastructure, while layer-2 solutions are off-chain systems built atop the base layer to enhance scalability and efficiency.
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows also influence ether prices, though their impact is smaller than bitcoin (BTC). Citi notes that ETFs can move prices more per dollar invested, but their overall effect on ETH remains limited given its smaller market capitalization and lower visibility with new investors.
Macro factors are expected to provide only modest support. With equities already approaching Citi’s S&P 500 target of 6,600, analysts do not foresee significant upside from risk assets to boost ether.
