Trump Media & Technology Group has entered the crypto spotlight with a headline-grabbing $2 billion investment in Bitcoin, shaking up long-held assumptions about the digital asset’s price cycle and hinting at broader macroeconomic implications.
The company, backed by President Donald Trump, revealed on Monday that it had acquired the BTC with plans to increase exposure. The size and timing of the investment has raised eyebrows across trading desks, especially as it appears to challenge the conventional post-halving market trajectory.
Breaking the Bitcoin Cycle?
Bitcoin’s supply issuance is halved every four years, an event that has historically catalyzed bull runs. The latest halving in April 2024 cut miner rewards to 3.125 BTC. Since then, Bitcoin has nearly doubled, climbing from $65,000 to just under $120,000.
Historically, BTC rallies tend to peak 12 to 18 months after a halving. Market tops occurred in late 2013, 2017, and 2021—each followed by prolonged corrections. Based on this pattern, many analysts expect the current cycle to top out before the end of 2025.
However, Trump Media’s aggressive positioning suggests that history may not repeat so neatly.
Political Firepower Meets Financial Strategy
This is the first time a media company closely tied to a sitting U.S. president has taken a direct stake in Bitcoin. It comes as the Trump administration pushes pro-crypto initiatives, including the recently introduced GENIUS Stablecoin Act.
Together, these moves indicate a coordinated push to normalize and promote digital assets at the highest levels of power.
“This isn’t just a trade,” wrote macro analyst EndGame Macro on X. “You don’t deploy $2 billion into a volatile asset like Bitcoin unless you expect a structural shift in the liquidity landscape.”
President Trump has been vocal in his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, frequently arguing that high interest rates are dragging on the economy. With the fed funds rate at 4.25%, many interpret Trump Media’s BTC bet as a hedge against continued dollar weakness and a wager on forthcoming rate cuts.
“If the Fed stays hawkish and Bitcoin drops 50%, the downside risk is enormous,” EndGame Macro warned. “So this has to be a conviction play on a dovish pivot.”
Wall Street Sees Easing Ahead
That pivot may be approaching. Goldman Sachs strategists expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in September, forecasting three 25-basis-point reductions this year—provided inflation continues to cool—according to InvestingLive.
Lower rates would ease financial conditions, stimulate risk-taking, and likely support asset prices across the board, including crypto.
Trump Media’s move, then, may reflect not just confidence in Bitcoin but a broader expectation of easier monetary policy and renewed dollar debasement. It’s a high-conviction bet that political and monetary forces are aligning to support digital assets well beyond the halving cycle.
