Solana’s CME Futures Debut Underwhelms Compared to BTC and ETH, But Context Matters
While Solana’s CME futures launch may have seemed underwhelming at first glance, its adjusted market cap comparison tells a different story, according to K33 Research.
Solana (SOL) futures quietly debuted on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Monday, marking an important milestone for institutional trading. However, unlike the high-profile launches of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) futures, SOL’s introduction lacked significant fanfare.
On its first day, the new SOL futures product recorded $12.3 million in notional trading volume, closing with $7.8 million in open interest. These figures pale in comparison to BTC futures’ debut in December 2017, which saw $102.7 million in volume and $20.9 million in open interest, and ETH futures’ February 2021 launch, which hit $31 million in volume and $20 million in open interest, per K33 Research.
Adding to the pressure, Solana’s price dropped about 10% from its weekend peak amid waning memecoin speculation, broader crypto market weakness, and even the fallout from a poorly received commercial. In contrast, BTC and ETH saw smaller declines of 4.5% and 3.8%, respectively.
Despite the relatively muted performance, K33 analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman argue that when adjusted for market capitalization, SOL’s futures debut is more aligned with BTC’s and ETH’s historical figures. At launch, Solana’s market cap was around $65 billion—significantly lower than ETH’s $200 billion and BTC’s $318 billion when their futures began trading.
Market timing also played a crucial role in SOL’s futures reception. Bitcoin’s CME futures launched at the height of the 2017 bull run, when speculative enthusiasm was at its peak. Ethereum’s debut coincided with the 2021 altcoin boom and Tesla’s Bitcoin investment, fueling strong institutional interest. In contrast, Solana futures entered a bearish market with no major catalysts driving immediate demand.
“It would appear that institutional demand for altcoins may be shallow, although we note that SOL’s launch has come in a comparatively risk-off environment,” the K33 analysts concluded.
