Political Bettors Favor Mark Carney with 78% Chance to Win Canada’s Top Job, Prediction Markets Show
As Canada approaches its 45th general election, political betting platforms are heavily favoring Mark Carney to become the next Prime Minister. According to platforms like Polymarket, Carney, the Liberal Party’s candidate, has a commanding 78% chance of winning, while Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre stands at a 22% likelihood.
While Carney’s odds are slightly more conservative compared to polling data, which shows him at an 89% chance according to a CBC poll aggregator, the general trend in both the betting markets and polls align. Other prediction platforms, like Myriad Markets, offer similar probabilities for Carney.
FanDuel, a licensed betting site available only to residents of Ontario, initially showed a surprising 70% chance for Poilievre, suggesting a significant deviation from other platforms. However, those odds have since aligned with broader market predictions, now giving the Liberal Party a roughly 80% chance of winning.
Unlike the U.S. elections, cryptocurrency issues haven’t played a significant role in Canada’s campaign, which has been focused on topics like inflation and trade relations.
Is Polymarket Too Easy to Manipulate?
A recurring concern among some critics is the reliability of Polymarket’s data, with accusations that the platform is prone to manipulation. These concerns have surfaced before, particularly during the U.S. presidential election when the platform showed Donald Trump with a significant lead while polls indicated a closer race.
Critics suggest that Poilievre’s odds may have been artificially suppressed on the platform, misrepresenting the public’s political sentiment. However, despite these criticisms, there is no substantial evidence to suggest manipulation. Furthermore, the cost of manipulating prediction markets would be prohibitively high.
Polymarket Analytics shows that the Canadian election market is leading the platform in terms of open interest, a key metric that indicates market engagement. Data also shows a highly diverse distribution of positions, with the largest holders of shares in the Poilievre “No” side and Carney “Yes” side each holding only a small fraction of the total shares—6% and 5%, respectively.
One major bettor, who has staked a significant six-figure sum on Carney, told CoinDesk that their decision is based purely on the quality of Canadian polling, not partisan interests. The bettor, who goes by the name Tenadome, explained that Poilievre needs a 7-point polling error to win, which they believe is highly unlikely.
“The probability of that happening is closer to 7% than his current market price of 23 cents,” said Tenadome in a message on X. “It seems like the group backing Poilievre is largely ‘dumb money’ that buys into conspiracies like China rigging the polls.”
As of now, the top earner on the contract is a trader known as “ball-sack,” who has made $124,890 from betting on Carney’s victory. On the opposite side of the trade, “biden4prez” has suffered a loss of just over $98,000, having bet on Poilievre to win.
