Crypto Markets Poised for Fed Cuts as $4.5B in Token Unlocks Loom – 17/9/2025
Crypto markets are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, with a 25-basis-point rate cut widely expected tomorrow. Yet, OKX Singapore CEO Gracie Lin warns that upcoming token unlocks and liquidity shocks could test the market, separating winners from losers.
Both Polymarket and CME FedWatch align on a 25 bps cut at the next FOMC meeting, with probabilities rising for a total of three cuts by year-end. Polymarket traders anticipate more aggressive easing, while CME data points to steadier 25 bps steps. Overall, markets are pricing roughly 75 bps of cuts for 2025.
On-Chain Signals Show Strong Market Conviction
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $116,762, up 1.3% for the day and 4.7% for the week, while Ethereum (ETH) sits at $4,502, gaining 4.3% over the week. Some investors remain on the sidelines, awaiting the Fed’s announcement before taking action.
Exchange Flows Suggest Reduced Selling Pressure
BTC inflows to exchanges have dropped to a seven-day average of 25,000 BTC—the lowest in over 18 months—while average deposit sizes have halved to 0.57 BTC, signaling that major holders are holding steady. ETH exhibits a similar trend, with inflows falling to 783,000 ETH, down from 1.8 million in August, and average deposits declining from 40–45 ETH to 30 ETH.
Stablecoins, however, continue to flow into exchanges. USDT deposits hit $379 million at the end of August—the highest of the year—and remain elevated around $200 million, providing exchanges with the liquidity needed to support a post-Fed rally.
Altcoins See Rising Activity
High-beta altcoins are experiencing renewed exchange activity, with seven-day transaction deposits rising to 55,000 from a previous range of 20,000–30,000. This suggests profit-taking in altcoins even as BTC and ETH supplies stay tight.
Token Unlocks Could Pressure Market Liquidity
September brings $4.5 billion in token unlocks, which could challenge liquidity and test market absorption. Lin notes that opportunity lies beyond short-term volatility:
“Stablecoins near $300 billion in supply, token unlocks are testing market depth, and infrastructure upgrades such as Nasdaq’s move toward tokenized securities indicate crypto’s integration into the global financial system.”
With the Fed pivot largely priced in, the next question is whether crypto’s liquidity buffers, stablecoin inflows, and token unlocks can absorb shocks and fuel the next leg higher for BTC.
Market Snapshot
- BTC: Trading above $116,500, supported by rate-cut expectations and technical factors, though caution remains ahead of the Fed meeting.
- ETH: Showing modest strength, supported by BTC momentum, but facing macro and policy-related resistance.
- Gold: Hits record highs amid anticipated rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and global uncertainty, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal.
