Robinhood Crypto Revenue Expected to Dip in Q1 After Explosive Q4 Surge, Says JPMorgan
Following an explosive 700% surge in cryptocurrency trading revenue during Q4 2024, Robinhood (HOOD) may face a notable pullback in the first quarter of 2025, according to JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington.
The popular trading platform is set to release its Q1 earnings after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday. Analysts are watching closely to see whether the platform can maintain momentum after its standout performance late last year.
Worthington cautions that the sharp growth in crypto-related revenue is unlikely to continue, pointing to a slowdown in trading volumes across both equities and digital assets — particularly in the latter half of Q1. He estimates Robinhood users traded approximately $52 billion in cryptocurrencies during the first quarter, down from $71 billion in Q4.
The analyst attributes the decline to a “risk-off” sentiment that swept through markets earlier this year, erasing some of the gains seen in late 2024. Robinhood’s assets under custody (AUC) are also projected to decline by 5% quarter-over-quarter to $183.3 billion, though they remain 41% higher than a year ago.
Although retail activity showed signs of strength in early April, especially in response to tariff developments out of Washington, Worthington believes the uptick may not be enough to offset broader weakness. He also pointed to reduced demand for margin and derivatives trading — a trend also observed at Interactive Brokers — as a potential drag on Robinhood’s performance.
Maintaining a neutral stance on the stock, Worthington lowered his price target by $1 to $44, implying roughly 10% downside from Robinhood’s current share price just under $49.
