Cardano ETF Approval Could Be Delayed Amid U.S. Government Shutdown
The highly anticipated Cardano (ADA, $0.7830) ETF may not meet its 2025 approval timeline as the SEC operates with minimal staff during the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Crypto ETF reviews are effectively frozen, raising the possibility that decisions could slip into 2026.
Although the SEC recently introduced fast-track rules for altcoin ETFs, including ADA, the shutdown has left filings in limbo. Polymarket traders currently assign a 90% chance of year-end approval, but a 36% probability of a month-long shutdown makes delays more likely than the market currently suggests.
Only about 390 of the SEC’s 4,200 employees remain on duty, focusing on emergencies and market monitoring rather than reviewing filings. While applications can still be submitted through EDGAR, no staff are available to process or accelerate approvals.
Even if operations resume in late October, the SEC would have roughly eight working weeks before the holiday slowdown to clear a backlog of 89 crypto ETF filings, including Cardano’s. The ongoing shutdown casts significant uncertainty over the ETF’s timeline.
