Coinbase Q2 Preview: Analysts Divided as Trading Weakens but Services and Regulatory Tailwinds Gain Traction
Coinbase (COIN) is set to release its second-quarter earnings after Thursday’s market close, with Wall Street analysts split on the company’s near-term outlook. While core trading volumes have declined sharply, optimism surrounding regulatory progress and the company’s expanding services business is keeping some bulls engaged.
Revenue Set to Rise, But Trading Decline Looms Large
Consensus estimates from FactSet project Coinbase will post $1.59 billion in revenue for Q2, up from $1.45 billion a year ago. Earnings per share are forecast at $1.25. However, behind the headline figures lies a more nuanced debate: will the continued slide in crypto spot trading outweigh gains in Coinbase’s subscription and services (S&S) segment?
Barclays Sees Trading Slump Pressuring Results
Barclays analyst Benjamin Buddish, who maintains a neutral stance on COIN, expects disappointing transaction revenue due to a significant drop in retail activity. He estimates Q2 trading revenue at $741 million, well below the FactSet consensus of $813.8 million. Buddish pointed to a 43% quarter-over-quarter decline in retail volumes based on app usage data and Robinhood trends.
Still, he raised his price target to $359 from $202, citing multiple expansion across the market and the stock’s rally — COIN has more than doubled since April. Buddish remains cautious in the near term but acknowledges that proposed legislation such as the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts could serve as longer-term catalysts.
Citi Takes a Bullish View
Citi’s Peter Christiansen is more upbeat, recently lifting his price target to $505 from $270 while reiterating a buy rating. He cites Coinbase’s addition to the S&P 500, regulatory advancements including the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, and anticipated benefits from the CLARITY Act — which seeks to distinguish between securities and commodities in the crypto space.
Christiansen also points to Coinbase’s longer-term vision: tokenized equity products, wallet enhancements, and the launch of a crypto-backed credit card through the Amex network. While he concedes Q2 volumes are down, he sees upside in USDC monetization, Base network traction, and subscription growth via Coinbase One.
JPMorgan Stays Neutral, Highlights Execution Risk
Kenneth Worthington of JPMorgan holds a neutral view with a $404 price target for year-end 2025. He includes Coinbase’s $1.4 billion share of Circle’s stablecoin business in his valuation, though not in adjusted EBITDA, and has factored in a $50 million cost tied to a cybersecurity breach earlier in the year.
Worthington believes Coinbase remains well-positioned as a structural player in the crypto economy, especially given the rise of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. But he notes that future performance hinges on product innovation, particularly in tokenization and payments. While legislative clarity and ETF momentum could boost results, compliance risks and cooling sentiment remain threats.
Subscription and Services Offer Resilience
Coinbase previously guided Q2 subscription and services revenue between $600 million and $680 million. Barclays expects it to come in above range at $703 million, supported by higher bitcoin prices and stronger USDC balances. Christiansen also expects continued expansion in the segment, despite slower growth in staking, driven by new product offerings.
Volumes Lag Despite Crypto Market Recovery
Despite an overall recovery in crypto prices through 2025, Coinbase’s trading activity hasn’t kept pace. The Block reports Q2 spot volumes of $232 billion — down around 40% quarter-over-quarter. Futures trading held up better but also showed signs of softening by June.
Coinbase shares closed Wednesday at $380, up 2% on the day and 47% year-to-date. With investor focus now turning to Thursday’s report, the key question remains: can regulatory momentum and services growth offset the drag from weaker trading volumes?
