Howard Lutnick Dismisses Recession Concerns as BTC Slides Toward $80K
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is downplaying fears that former President Donald Trump’s trade policies could push the economy into a downturn, even as the crypto market experiences a sharp pullback.
During an appearance on Meet the Press Sunday, Lutnick firmly rejected Wall Street’s warnings of a looming recession.
“Absolutely not,” he responded when asked if Americans should brace for an economic slowdown. “There’s going to be no recession in America. The same people who doubted Donald Trump before are the ones making these predictions. Trump is a winner, and he will deliver for the American people.”
A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, often triggered by internal or external disruptions.
Lutnick took to social media to reinforce his stance, linking Trump’s aggressive tariff policies to broader economic strength and a crackdown on illegal drug flows:
“The President is fully committed to this fight and won’t ease up. These tariffs are part of a larger battle. Canada and Mexico must curb the fentanyl crisis, and China must end production subsidies. The Trump administration won’t back down.”
However, Lutnick’s optimism stands in contrast to Trump’s own remarks, in which he acknowledged that a recession could be part of an economic transition.
Tariffs and Growth: A High-Stakes Gamble
Lutnick argues that Trump’s trade strategy will ultimately unlock economic potential, driving $1.3 trillion in new investments by forcing other nations to lower trade barriers.
“We are about to unleash America on the world,” he asserted, dismissing concerns from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs that tariffs could lead to an economic contraction. “Over the next two years, we will witness the greatest growth surge coming from the U.S.”
He acknowledged that tariffs might push up prices for foreign goods but framed them as a necessary measure to reduce the trade deficit and lower borrowing costs.
“When you balance the budget, interest rates drop by 150 basis points. Mortgage rates will plummet, and housing will become more affordable,” Lutnick explained.
Crypto Market Slumps as Investors Turn Cautious
Despite Lutnick’s confidence in economic resilience, crypto markets are telling a different story. Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled 7% on Sunday, retreating to $80,000 and approaching its yearly low of $78,000.
Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) followed suit, while meme coins such as Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) saw steeper losses of nearly 12%.
On prediction platform Polymarket, traders have been pricing in a greater likelihood of a recession. The probability of a U.S. downturn in 2025 has risen to 41%, marking a 16% jump in recent weeks.
Mixed Economic Signals Keep Recession Debate Alive
The latest U.S. jobs report painted a mixed picture. February saw 151,000 new jobs added, aligning with expectations. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, and January’s job gains were revised downward, according to CoinDesk.
Public sector layoffs tied to the White House’s cost-cutting initiatives may further impact employment figures in the coming months.
While the labor market has remained relatively strong, early signs of slowing growth are emerging. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects a -2.8% GDP growth rate for Q1, adding to recession concerns.
That said, a separate Polymarket contract suggests only a 3% chance of a recession before May, leaving room for economic resilience in the near term.
