Bitcoin’s on-chain options market has seen a significant shift, with the probability of its price dropping to $75,000 by March 28 rising to 22%, up from just 10% last week, according to data from Derive.xyz. This sharp increase in likelihood comes amid heightened concerns over a renewed trade war between the U.S. and its major trading partners—Canada, Mexico, and China—raising fears of inflationary pressures that could hinder global economic growth.
The U.S. recently imposed new tariffs, including a 25% levy on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These actions are expected to increase inflation, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates, which has led to reduced investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets, as noted by Derive in an email to CoinDesk.
Bitcoin has already seen an 11% drop, falling to $93,700 over the past four days. Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, also experienced a decline, dipping below $2,200—the lowest price since August 5.
The chart pattern for Bitcoin now appears to be forming a double top reversal, which could pave the way for a further price decline to $75,000, analysts suggest. Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX and current CIO of Maelstrom, recently predicted that Bitcoin would first fall to around $75,000 before embarking on a larger bull run.
Despite these short-term challenges, the broader outlook remains positive, according to Derive. The company highlighted growing momentum in the digital asset space, noting active spot ETF filings for cryptocurrencies like DOGE, SOL, XRP, and LTC from major players such as Bitwise and Grayscale. If approved by the SEC, these filings could legitimize the industry further and attract more capital inflows, potentially driving prices higher.
Andre Dragosch, head of Europe at Bitwise, expressed optimism, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will eventually intervene to stabilize markets. “At some point, the Fed will need to reignite quantitative easing to curb the dollar’s strength and prevent further tightening in financial conditions, which would help support global growth,” Dragosch said.
