Bitcoin’s $12B Options Expiry Expected to Have Minimal Market Impact, Says Deribit
Key market indicators, including BTC’s implied volatility index and funding rates, suggest limited price swings ahead of this week’s massive Bitcoin (BTC) options expiry.
Bitcoin options worth $12.13 billion—spanning over 139,000 BTC contracts—are set to expire on Deribit this Friday, accounting for nearly 45% of all open BTC options contracts. However, despite the scale of the expiry, Deribit told CoinDesk that a significant market reaction is unlikely.
Currently, over 65% of open interest is in call options, which give traders the right to buy BTC at a set price, while the remainder consists of put options, which provide downside protection. Historically, such large expiries have led to increased volatility, but this time, market signals indicate otherwise.
The Bitcoin 30-day implied volatility index (DVOL) has steadily declined from an annualized 62% to 48% in recent weeks, signaling muted expectations for price fluctuations. Similarly, the annualized perpetual futures funding rate remains stable at around 5%, pointing to a calm market environment.
“Despite the size of the expiry, the overall setup—low DVOL, moderate basis, and balanced options positioning—points to a relatively subdued expiry unless external catalysts emerge,” said Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers.
Some Downside Protection Ahead of Expiry
Options skew data, which compares the pricing of call and put options, suggests some traders are hedging against short-term downside risks.
“3-Day Put-Call Skew is Slightly Positive, indicating some immediate downside protection demand, while 30-Day Put-Call Skew is slightly Negative, suggesting a more bullish outlook over the medium term,” Strijers added.
Additionally, Ether (ETH) options worth $2.8 billion are also set to expire on Friday.
