According to crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s recent pullback from the $100,000 level is merely a temporary pause before it continues its upward trajectory to even higher prices, potentially reaching as high as $147,000.
In a report shared with CoinDesk on Wednesday, CryptoQuant analyzed various blockchain data metrics and concluded that Bitcoin still has plenty of room to grow before reaching its peak. The firm’s custom Profit & Loss (P&L) index, which evaluates whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued based on on-chain valuation metrics, shows that the cryptocurrency remains firmly in a bull market. However, it is still far from the overvalued levels seen during previous market peaks in 2021, 2017, and 2013.
Additionally, CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has only just begun to heat up after dipping slightly into bear market territory earlier this year when Bitcoin corrected from a high of $73,000 in March to $50,000. This metric has not yet reached the overheated levels seen at previous market peaks.
Despite Bitcoin’s rapid ascent, retail investor participation remains subdued. Unlike the buying frenzies witnessed around previous cycle tops, retail investors have been selling Bitcoin since October, reducing their holdings by 41,000 BTC. Meanwhile, large investors have increased their holdings by 130,000 BTC during the same period.
The number of new investors entering the market also remains low. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin held by addresses that have owned the asset for less than six months constitutes only 50% of the total value invested in Bitcoin. This is a stark contrast to the 80%-90% levels observed during the peaks of previous cycles in 2017 and 2021.
CryptoQuant explains that price tops typically occur when new investors rush in to buy Bitcoin at extremely high prices, which causes them to hold a large proportion of the total value invested. However, this is not the case today, which suggests that the bull market is not yet in its final stages.
Despite the recent pullback, CryptoQuant analysts believe that Bitcoin will eventually break past the $100,000 mark, as previous bull markets have tended to top out around the upper band of Bitcoin’s realized price metric. Currently, the realized price stands at $36,000–$37,000, and as it rises, the upper band of this metric points to a target of $147,000.
If Bitcoin follows the pattern seen in past bull markets, it could rally to at least $147,000 before reaching a market cycle top, according to CryptoQuant.
CryptoQuant’s outlook aligns with that of other firms bullish on Bitcoin. Galaxy Research, for example, recently stated that Bitcoin is expected to reach $100,000 in the near term, with the possibility of even higher prices, driven by increasing institutional adoption and the potential for Bitcoin to be incorporated into nation-state reserves.
