Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin Holds as Ethereum Emerges as September Rally Leader
Bitcoin (BTC) remains near $112,000, consolidating after recent gains as investors increasingly differentiate between BTC’s role as a macro hedge and ether (ETH)’s potential for upside this month.
QCP Capital highlights governance risks and a softer U.S. dollar as tailwinds supporting hedges like BTC and gold. Elevated term premiums, fueled by concerns over the Fed’s independence, are creating a favorable environment for traditional safe-haven assets.
Meanwhile, trading desks and prediction markets signal growing momentum in ETH. Flowdesk reports muted BTC implied volatility, pointing to hedged positions rather than speculative bets. BTC puts are expensive, creating relative value for calls, while ETH risk reversals have rebounded, reflecting renewed demand for upside exposure.
Momentum is also spreading to altcoins. Solana (SOL) options activity is skewed to the upside, driven by confidence in its ecosystem and corporate Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) initiatives. Spot flows have rotated into ETH-linked assets such as AAVE and AERO, and SOL-linked tokens like RAY and DRIFT, indicating widening market breadth.
Prediction markets reinforce this trend: BTC is expected to remain capped near $120,000, while ETH has strong chances of surpassing $5,000, consistent with its 20% monthly rally and recovering risk reversals.
Market Overview
- BTC: Consolidating around $110K–112K with muted volatility, acting as a macro hedge.
- ETH: Trading near $4,400, supported by institutional ETF inflows and anticipation of the Fusaka upgrade, solidifying its role in DeFi and smart contracts.
- Gold: Near record highs as markets price in a 92% likelihood of a Fed rate cut, with ETFs and central banks increasing purchases.
- Nikkei 225: Up 0.57% Thursday, driven by Wall Street tech gains despite lingering economic concerns.
- S&P 500: Rose Wednesday as Alphabet rallied post-antitrust ruling, with Fed rate-cut expectations boosting sentiment.
Overall, BTC continues to serve as a hedge against macro and governance risks, ETH is emerging as the market’s key performance play, and SOL is gaining traction as broader market participation grows.
