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Conflux Rally Driven by China Speculation, Yet Analysts Say the Fundamentals Don’t Justify the Move

Conflux’s CFX Surges on China Optimism, But On-Chain Activity Remains Lackluster

Conflux’s CFX token jumped about 14% over the weekend, outpacing the broader crypto market amid growing speculation that China may be warming to certain digital assets. This enthusiasm has helped push CFX up over 190% in the past 30 days.

Touted as “China’s Ethereum,” Conflux aims to offer a compliant blockchain solution within mainland China while maintaining its token presence globally. Analysts call this a “one country, two systems” model, enabling Conflux to navigate Chinese regulations while participating in global crypto markets. The project has partnered with major Chinese social media platforms, strengthening its foothold domestically.

Investor interest has also been driven by plans for an offshore yuan stablecoin, in line with reports that Beijing is considering stablecoins as a way to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar.

However, on-chain data paints a less optimistic picture. Transaction activity has stagnated over the past year and remains below 2022 levels. More concerningly, nearly 80% of gas fees come from just three accounts, indicating a high degree of centralization. For comparison, Ethereum’s largest gas spender accounts for less than 10%.

While crypto isn’t outright banned in China, and places like Hong Kong continue to embrace digital assets, it remains unclear if Conflux is truly representative of China’s crypto future. The disconnect between CFX’s price surge and weak on-chain metrics suggests fundamentals haven’t caught up with market enthusiasm yet.