Bitcoin Holds $115K as Analysts Split on Market Momentum
Bitcoin (BTC) traded just above $115,000 in Asia Tuesday morning, slipping slightly after a strong start to the week. The pullback follows a surge of U.S. spot ETF inflows and optimism that the Federal Reserve may cut rates next week, prompting debate over whether the rally is grounded on solid fundamentals or built on fragile momentum after last week’s CPI-driven volatility.
Analyst views diverge. Glassnode’s weekly report highlights caution: despite ETF inflows rising nearly 200% last week and futures open interest climbing, the underlying spot market shows signs of weakness.
Glassnode notes that buying conviction remains shallow, funding rates have softened, and profit-taking is rising, with over 92% of BTC supply currently in profit. Options traders have reduced downside hedges, narrowing volatility spreads—a setup that could leave BTC exposed if risk sentiment returns. In short, ETFs and futures are supporting the rally, but without stronger spot demand, Bitcoin remains vulnerable.
In contrast, Singapore-based QCP takes a bullish perspective. The desk says crypto is “back on track” following CPI data that confirmed tariff-driven inflation without major surprises. They highlight five consecutive days of significant BTC ETF inflows, ETH’s largest inflows in two weeks, and strength in XRP and SOL despite ETF delays.
Traders are interpreting regulatory postponements as procedural rather than restrictive. With the Altcoin Season Index at a 90-day high, QCP views BTC consolidation above $115K as a springboard for rotation into higher-beta assets.
The $115K–$116K range has become a key battleground. Glassnode calls it fragile optimism, while QCP emphasizes momentum. The near-term trajectory may depend on whether ETF inflows continue to offset profit-taking in the coming weeks.
Market Snapshot
- BTC: Consolidating near $115K, supported by institutional ETF demand ahead of anticipated Fed policy moves.
- ETH: Trading near $4,500, aided by institutional inflows, exchange outflows, and positive technical signals.
- Gold: Holding near record highs, underpinned by safe-haven demand and expectations of Fed rate cuts, tempered by profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar.
- Nikkei 225: Surpassed 45,000 Monday, leading Asia-Pacific gains amid positive U.S.-China trade developments and TikTok divestment plans.
- S&P 500: Rose 0.5% to close above 6,600 Monday, boosted by trade optimism and anticipation of the Fed meeting.
