Bitcoin Bulls Warned as Treasury Volatility Jumps
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of strain, with long-term holder selling and slowing ETF inflows weighing on price action. Adding to the pressure, the MOVE index, a measure of U.S. Treasury volatility, has surged sharply.
The MOVE index, created by former Merrill Lynch MD Harley Bassman, tracks implied volatility across one-month options on 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasuries. In the past three days, it climbed from 77 to 89—the largest spike since April, when market turbulence drove BTC down to $75,000.
Historically, rising Treasury volatility tightens liquidity, raises borrowing costs, and sparks a “flight to safety,” as investors shift toward short-term bonds and away from risk assets. BTC rallies have generally coincided with declining MOVE levels, making the current surge a warning for bulls.
Continued increases in the index could deepen BTC’s ongoing pullback.
