A sharp decline in leveraged long positions on Bitfinex is being viewed by analysts as a counterintuitive bullish indicator for Bitcoin, reinforcing a pattern seen throughout past market cycles.
“Historically, when long positions on Bitfinex drop, Bitcoin’s price tends to rise,” said João Wedson, CEO of crypto analytics firm Alphractal. “It’s a classic case of the crowd being positioned on the wrong side of the trade.”
As of this writing, the number of leveraged BTCUSD longs on Bitfinex has fallen to 47,691 — the lowest level since December, according to TradingView data. That decline follows a peak in early April and aligns with Bitcoin’s explosive rally from around $75,000 to fresh record highs above $110,000.
While it may seem counterintuitive, the dynamic is consistent with the concept of a contrary indicator — a metric that appears bearish at first glance but historically signals bullish outcomes. In this case, rising long positions have often preceded price declines, while falling longs have coincided with major rallies.
“When traders are overly long, it often leads to liquidations that force prices lower,” Alphractal said in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter). “Conversely, as leveraged longs unwind, upward price momentum tends to build.”
Chart analysis supports this thesis. Major Bitcoin rallies — including those in November–December 2024 and the recent breakout in April 2025 — occurred as Bitfinex BTCUSD longs declined. Meanwhile, aggressive surges in long positioning have aligned with bearish phases, such as the 2022 crash and this year’s early correction from $100K to $75K.
In essence, falling long exposure may be less about waning bullish conviction and more about clearing out excess leverage — potentially setting the stage for more sustainable price appreciation.
“As long as Bitfinex Long Positions keep dropping, Bitcoin will continue to rise,” Wedson added.
