Citi Forecasts Bitcoin at $135K by Year-End, Sees $199K in Bullish Scenario
Citi has released an updated Bitcoin price forecast, setting a base-case year-end target of $135,000 and projecting a potential rally to $199,000 in its most optimistic scenario. The downside case puts BTC at $64,000, largely tied to weaker equity market conditions.
The Wall Street bank said the revised projections reflect the evolving dynamics of the crypto market, with its valuation models now factoring in three core drivers: user adoption, macroeconomic trends, and spot ETF inflows.
At the foundation of Citi’s approach is an adoption model built around user growth. Analysts expect a 20% rise in user activity, with linear network effects supporting a price near $75,000. Weaker equity and gold markets subtract about $3,200 from that baseline.
However, the bank forecasts an additional $15 billion in ETF inflows, which it estimates could add around $63,000 to BTC’s price, bringing the total to its base case of $135,000.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, first approved in the U.S. in January 2024, have significantly reshaped market dynamics. Citi notes these products now account for over 40% of recent BTC price movements, underscoring their growing influence on valuation models.
While user adoption remains an important anchor, Citi emphasizes that institutional flows and macro factors are increasingly critical. The report cites the growing integration of crypto into traditional finance—through ETFs, index inclusion, and regulatory clarity—as key forces behind Bitcoin’s shift into mainstream portfolios.
Citi also noted that upside risks may outweigh downside threats. ETF demand has been stronger than expected, and user activity is declining more slowly than anticipated, suggesting that Bitcoin’s network effects could prove more durable.
“Bitcoin’s value is now shaped as much by capital allocation decisions as by technological adoption,” the report stated.
