For bullish sentiment to return, analysts say BTC needs a decisive breakout above $116,000 — the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. Until then, the crypto market is expected to remain volatile, with sentiment dictated by shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomic signals.
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Bitcoin Holds Key Support Despite Powell’s Hawkish Remarks and Market Jitters
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding steady near crucial technical support after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments tempered expectations of a December rate cut and rattled risk markets.
Following Powell’s remarks, BTC briefly dipped to around $109,250 but quickly recovered to trade near $111,000 — just above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a level often viewed as a key dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum.
Remaining above this long-term support is encouraging, yet traders caution that bitcoin’s near-term outlook remains fragile. The price continues to sit below the Ichimoku cloud — a popular indicator of trend direction — signaling potential weakness if buying pressure fails to build. Prolonged trading under the cloud could invite a deeper decline toward the $100,000 psychological threshold, a level not tested since earlier this year.
This concern is magnified by macro signals. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has formed a bullish crossover between its 50- and 100-day moving averages, hinting at continued dollar strength. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 4%, reinforcing pressure on risk assets like bitcoin.
Options data supports the cautionary tone. BTC put options on Deribit are now commanding a 4–5% volatility premium, indicating heightened downside hedging by traders, according to Amberdata.
To shift momentum decisively in favor of bulls, bitcoin would need to break above $116,000 — the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud — which could restore confidence and open the path for another leg higher. Until then, volatility and cautious sentiment are likely to dominate as investors gauge the Fed’s next move and broader macroeconomic trends.
