Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a significant challenge in breaking through the $100,000 price barrier, with a hefty $384 million in sell orders positioned between its current value and that milestone. However, supply data suggests there is mounting pressure building for a potential upward move.
The term “illiquid supply” refers to Bitcoin that is held by long-term holders (LTHs) and is not actively traded. According to data from Glassnode, the illiquid supply has surged by more than 185,000 BTC over the past 30 days, reaching a record high of 14.8 million BTC. This represents 75% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply, which is just under 20 million, with a fixed maximum of 21 million BTC. The increase of 185,000 tokens marks the second-highest 30-day change this year, indicating that the prevailing trend among investors is to hold rather than trade.
Previous research by CoinDesk shows that LTHs have recently shifted from selling to accumulating Bitcoin. Since November 26, LTHs have added over 2,000 BTC to their holdings, signaling that the phase of profit-taking may be nearing its end, potentially easing sell pressure on the market.
Additionally, Bitcoin has been rapidly exiting exchanges since the start of the latest bull run in early November, breaking a nearly two-year trend of stable exchange levels. This trend suggests rising investor demand, although a five-year view reveals that Bitcoin on exchanges has remained relatively flat, oscillating between 2.7 million and 3.3 million BTC.
For a more sustainable bullish trend, Bitcoin needs to continue flowing out of exchanges, as this would signify ongoing investor interest rather than leverage-driven demand from derivatives markets.
“Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached an all-time high, while exchange balances are at multi-year lows,” noted Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise. “Almost 75% of Bitcoin’s supply is now considered ‘illiquid,’ with less than 14% remaining on exchanges. This growing supply scarcity is intensifying.”
