Bitcoin’s 50-Day Moving Average Hits Record High — But Momentum May Be Fading
Bitcoin’s widely watched 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has reached a record high, crossing into six-figure territory for the first time. But beneath this bullish headline, technical signals suggest the rally could be running out of steam.
According to data from TradingView, the 50-day SMA now stands above $104,000, surpassing its previous peak of roughly $99,300 set on January 31. The new milestone reflects the strength of Bitcoin’s recent bull run, which saw the spot price climb to an all-time high above $111,000 on May 22, fueled by sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and a broader pivot away from traditional U.S. assets.
However, the spread between the spot price and the 50-day SMA—a commonly used momentum indicator—has been steadily narrowing since the May peak. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $105,000, just marginally above the SMA.
This narrowing spread indicates waning upside momentum. Historically, a declining gap between spot price and the 50-day average has preceded corrections, as it often reflects reduced buying pressure and profit-taking by long-term holders.
“The trend is still positive, but momentum is clearly cooling,” said one technical analyst. “A tightening spread is often the market’s way of signaling caution before a deeper retracement.”
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
- Spot Price: ~$105,000
- 50-Day SMA: ~$100,295
- Support Zone: Around the 50-day average
- Warning Signal: A sustained drop below the SMA could open the door to a deeper pullback
This pattern resembles December 2024, when Bitcoin hovered above $100,000 and the spread began to compress. In that instance, the indicator flipped negative in February, leading to a multiweek decline that bottomed near $75,000.
While the current setup doesn’t confirm a breakdown, it does raise the probability of a 10% or greater correction, especially if ETF inflows weaken or macro conditions shift.
For now, the $100,000–$101,000 range—near the 50-day average—may act as a crucial support area if prices begin to roll over.
