Could a centuries-old market pattern signal further losses for Bitcoin? Historical performance and seasonal trends suggest the answer might be “yes.”
A breakout earlier this week saw Bitcoin (BTC) surge toward the $100,000 mark, sparking euphoria among traders. However, as May approaches, many are wondering if this optimism could be short-lived due to the looming “Sell in May and Go Away” seasonal trend.
Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, explained to CoinDesk in a Telegram message, “Historically, the next couple of months tend to be weak for financial markets, with many investors following the ‘Sell in May’ mantra.” Mei acknowledged that while the market has underperformed recently, there are signs this year might buck the trend. “Bitcoin’s recent surge to $97K and a rally in growth stocks indicate potential for a positive turn, but weak U.S. GDP numbers suggest some risk. If we see negative GDP growth next quarter, we could be heading toward a recession, though rate cuts might lead to a market rebound.”
The “Sell in May and Go Away” adage is a time-tested strategy in traditional finance. It recommends that investors sell their positions at the beginning of May and re-enter the market in November. This pattern stems from the belief that financial markets typically underperform during the summer months due to lower trading volumes, reduced institutional involvement, and historical return data. The phrase has roots dating back to the early days of the London Stock Exchange, with the full expression originally being “Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day,” referencing a horse race held in mid-September.
Bitcoin’s Seasonal Patterns
Similar to traditional equity markets, Bitcoin has demonstrated recurring seasonal patterns, largely influenced by macroeconomic cycles, institutional flows, and retail sentiment. CoinGlass data reveals that Bitcoin’s performance in May has often been lackluster in recent years.
For example, in 2021, Bitcoin experienced a sharp 35% drop in May, marking one of its worst months of the year. In 2022, Bitcoin again saw a negative May, dropping 15% amidst the collapse of the Luna ecosystem. While May in 2023 was flat to mildly positive, Bitcoin had an 11% increase in May 2020 and a notable 52% gain in May 2019, following a period of market maturation after the 2018 altcoin cycle.
However, these positive May performances have often been followed by declines in June, with four of the past five Junes ending in negative territory. While historical patterns are not definitive, they suggest that Bitcoin may be increasingly influenced by the same macroeconomic and seasonal dynamics as traditional equity markets, especially with the growing involvement of institutional capital.
Caution Ahead?
Traders are likely to exercise caution as the seasonal “Sell in May” trend approaches, particularly after a strong rally in Q1. Altcoins, especially meme coins, could be particularly vulnerable to pullbacks due to their speculative nature and recent hype-driven price moves.
Vugar Usi Zade, COO at crypto exchange Bitget, pointed out to CoinDesk that, since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a modest 1.8% return from May through October, with only 65% of these six-month periods delivering positive results. By contrast, the period from November through April has consistently shown stronger performance.
Over the past 12 years, Bitcoin’s average Q2 returns (April–June) have been 26%, but with a median of just 7.5%, suggesting that outlier-driven performance and volatility are common. By Q3 (July–September), the average return drops to just 6%, and the median turns slightly negative, reflecting post-Q2 consolidation or fatigue. Zade further emphasized that Q4 is typically Bitcoin’s strongest period, with average returns of +85.4% and a median of +52.3%, while Q3 often sees more muted or negative performance.
“This overlap in seasonality signals caution as we approach May,” Zade said. “Historically, Bitcoin’s best performance tends to occur in Q4, while Q3 usually presents weaker results.”
The Bottom Line
While cryptocurrency markets are not bound by traditional Wall Street calendars, market psychology continues to react to narratives. The “Sell in May” pattern could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy, especially if Bitcoin’s technical indicators begin to falter and sentiment shifts. With historical trends pointing to caution in the coming months, traders will need to weigh potential risks carefully as May approaches.
