Bitcoin Surges as Weak U.S. Data Fuels Rate Cut Expectations
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $116,000 on Friday, gaining roughly 4% over the past week, as disappointing U.S. economic data increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. While positive for crypto, the data signals mounting concerns about inflation and labor market weakness.
August’s CPI came in slightly above forecasts, suggesting persistent price pressures. Job revisions revealed nearly 1 million fewer positions created in the year ending March than previously reported—the largest downward adjustment in U.S. history. The August jobs report added just 22,000 positions, with unemployment rising to 4.3% and initial claims hitting 263,000, the highest since October 2021.
Risk assets responded strongly. Bitcoin formed higher lows from its September bottom near $107,500, with the 200-day moving average at $102,083. Equities also advanced, with the S&P 500 posting back-to-back record closes, while the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4%.
Bitcoin-linked stocks were mixed: Strategy (MSTR) remained flat at $326, below its 200-day moving average, while MARA and XXI rose 7% and 4%, respectively.
CME FedWatch shows a 25-basis-point cut priced in for September, with three cuts expected by year-end, supporting renewed appetite for crypto, equities, and other risk assets.
