Bitcoin Dips Amid Profit-Taking After FOMC Rally, but $100K Odds Improve
Bitcoin (BTC) and other major cryptocurrencies saw a sharp pullback of over 3% on Friday, as traders took profits following Thursday’s relief rally. The move was widely anticipated, with analysts pointing to $80,000 as a key support level to monitor.
Market Overview
- Bitcoin dropped from $86,000 to below $84,000, while the total crypto market capitalization declined 3.2% over the past 24 hours.
- Ethereum (ETH) dipped below $2,000, while Solana’s (SOL) price fell 5%.
- XRP reversed some of its weekly gains, trimming Wednesday’s 10% jump to a 4.8% gain over the past week.
- BNB Chain’s BNB remained strong, extending its weekly gains to over 8%.
- Tron (TRX) and Toncoin (TON) were the only major gainers, both rising 2%.
TRX made headlines after being floated on the Solana blockchain for the first time late Thursday, aimed at expanding its user base. TON, meanwhile, saw increased demand after the Toncoin Foundation disclosed that venture capital firms now hold over $400 million worth of the asset following fresh investments.
FOMC Sparks Brief Rally, But Traders Remain Cautious
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday initially acted as a catalyst for BTC, pushing it past $85,000 after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and announced plans to scale back its quantitative tightening program starting in April.
Singapore-based QCP Capital noted that this policy shift could be interpreted as an indirect rate cut, which options traders have started to price in accordingly.
- Probability of BTC hitting $100K by June 30 increased from 20% to nearly 30% in the last 24 hours, according to Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz.
- ETH holding above $2,000 by June 30 is now a coin flip, dropping from a 40% probability to 50%, based on options market activity.
- On Derive.xyz, 60% of ETH options traded in the last 24 hours were bullish calls, signaling optimism, while 34% of BTC trades reflected downside protection, suggesting hedging behavior.
Technical Levels to Watch
Market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro emphasized that $80,000 remains a critical support level for BTC and warned of potential bear traps.
“It’s important to note that the crypto market has yet to break above its 200-day moving average, which currently stands at $2.9 trillion in total market cap,” Kuptsikevich stated.
- A break above this level could trigger renewed buying interest, leading to further market expansion.
- However, failure to hold above key support levels could invite more downside pressure, especially in the altcoin and memecoin sectors, which have already undergone a prolonged correction phase.
Outlook: Profit-Taking or Setup for the Next Leg Higher?
With traders locking in gains after the FOMC rally, Bitcoin’s near-term price action hinges on whether it can hold key support levels. If BTC maintains its ground, the probability of a push toward $100K continues to grow—but short-term volatility remains a factor.
