Bitcoin’s Impressive Recovery: Analyzing Current Cycles and Future Projections
The collapse of FTX and bitcoin’s plunge to $15,500 in November 2022 might seem like a distant memory now. During that time, extreme fear gripped the market, and many questioned whether bitcoin (BTC) would ever recover. However, just over two years later, bitcoin has surged above $100,000, aided by a new U.S. administration that is perceived to be more favorable to crypto. While President Donald Trump, now the 47th President of the U.S., has not yet announced any official crypto policies, the market sentiment has shifted dramatically.
One of the ongoing discussions in the crypto space is bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, which reduces its supply every four years. This cyclical pattern often leads to significant price increases in the year following the halving, and the current cycle appears to be following a similar trajectory to past cycles.
Bitcoin is currently up approximately 550% from its cycle lows during the FTX collapse (represented by the black line on the chart). In comparison, bitcoin’s price during the 2015-2018 cycle (shown by the blue line) was also up around a similar percentage from its cycle low on January 14, 2015. It’s important to note that Glassnode’s data uses the closing price at 00:00 UTC, which may differ from other platforms.
During the 2018-2022 cycle (green line), bitcoin was up approximately 1,300% at this point in the cycle, more than double the current gains. If bitcoin continues to follow the 2015-2018 cycle, it could end Q1 2025 up by 1,100% from its cycle low, potentially reaching $186,000 per bitcoin. If the pattern holds, the cycle peak could occur around October this year, with a remarkable 11,000% increase, pushing the price of one bitcoin to around $1.7 million.
Further comparisons to previous cycles include correlations with U.S. presidential terms. Bitcoin Archive’s post on X highlights that bitcoin increased 20x during Donald Trump’s first term as president. A 10x return from current levels would bring bitcoin to approximately $1 million.
While these projections are speculative, they offer an interesting perspective on bitcoin’s potential growth trajectory based on historical trends and broader market cycles.
