Bitcoin, Ether, XRP Face September Volatility After Record Whale Distribution
Bitcoin (BTC) traded just below $112,000 on Monday as investors weighed the market’s largest whale sell-off in more than two years against signs of long-term accumulation and steady altcoin performance.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that over 100,000 BTC—worth roughly $12.7 billion—have exited major wallets in the past 30 days. Analyst caueconomy described this as “the largest coin distribution this year,” noting that whale reserves fell by 114,920 BTC, briefly pushing Bitcoin below $108,000. The scale of these sales mirrors aggressive reductions seen in July 2022.
“The portfolios of major players are still shrinking, which may continue to pressure Bitcoin in the coming weeks,” the analyst said. Softer ETF inflows and lower trading volumes have left the market more sensitive to macroeconomic factors.
Despite short-term pressure, the long-term outlook remains positive. Bitcoin is down only 13% from its mid-August all-time high, a relatively mild retracement compared with historical corrections. CryptoQuant analyst Dave the Wave highlighted that the one-year moving average has climbed from $52,000 a year ago to $94,000, and is expected to surpass $100,000 in October, signaling a structural uptrend.
Supply metrics further support a bullish perspective. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, noted that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a record 14.3 million BTC, with over 70% held in wallets showing minimal spending activity. “Confidence in long-term value remains evident,” Lee said. He expects BTC to stabilize and regain momentum in a $105,000–$118,000 range, supported by ETF flows and bullish MACD signals.
Ethereum (ETH) traded near $4,307, with a projected $4,100–$4,600 range if ETF demand persists. Network upgrades and DeFi developments may also drive independent gains.
Altcoins showed moderate improvement: XRP rose 2.3% to $2.96, Solana (SOL) gained 3.2% to $214, Dogecoin extended a 10.5% weekly gain to $0.236, and Cardano (ADA) added 6% to $0.865.
Market sentiment remains cautious. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that total crypto market capitalization rose 2.5% last week to $3.85 trillion but remains below the 50-day average. “This reflects limited risk appetite,” he said, adding that the sentiment index dipped into fear at 44 over the weekend before rebounding to 51 on Monday.
Seasonal September weakness adds an extra layer of caution. Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, highlighted that upcoming U.S. inflation data could drive market direction. “Higher-than-expected numbers may pressure Bitcoin and Ethereum, while lower readings could trigger a rally,” he said.
