Bitcoin’s Unexpected Link to Japan’s Long-Term Bonds Highlights a Global Macro Shift
Weston Nakamura, founder of Across The Spread and a global markets analyst specializing in macro trends from an Asia perspective, draws attention to a surprising and increasingly important relationship in today’s financial landscape.
Nakamura points out that Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a stronger correlation with the yields of long-term Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), particularly the 30-year maturity, than with its usual benchmarks like U.S. equities such as the Nasdaq 100.
As Bitcoin’s price has diverged from traditional risk assets, it has increasingly mirrored the rise in JGB yields — both of which have hit record highs in recent months.
Key events in 2024, including the launch of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and former President Trump’s re-election, led to short-lived Bitcoin price surges driven by market narratives. However, Nakamura notes that Bitcoin eventually realigned with the trajectory of long-end JGB yields.
He argues that this connection isn’t merely a side effect of U.S. Treasury yield movements but reflects Japan’s distinctive market conditions. Supporting this view, Nakamura references U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent’s recent comments emphasizing that U.S. Treasury yields are influenced by global factors, with Japan specifically playing a central role.
This suggests a provocative possibility: if U.S. monetary policy revolves around the 10-year Treasury yield, and that yield is itself shaped by the Japanese bond market, then Japan may be indirectly steering U.S. macroeconomic policy.
Nakamura concludes that JGBs have become a key driver in the global financial ecosystem, impacting assets from cryptocurrencies and stocks to foreign exchange and gold. He advises investors across all markets to pay close attention to Japan’s bond market, which may be quietly exerting a powerful influence on global asset dynamics.
