Bitcoin
BTC
$110,674.25
The muted bitcoin basis trade could see renewed activity if the Federal Reserve cuts rates later this month. The trade, which seeks to profit from the difference between spot and futures prices, has remained subdued in 2025 amid tighter funding and slowing ETF inflows.
CME FedWatch data shows a roughly 90% chance the Fed will trim the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from its current 4.25%-4.50% range on Sept. 17. Analysts say easier monetary policy could boost leveraged positions, raising futures premiums and reviving interest in the basis trade.
Currently, annualized returns on the trade hover near 8%, while CME bitcoin futures open interest has dropped from over 212,000 BTC at the start of the year to around 130,000 BTC, according to Glassnode. Implied volatility remains low at 40, keeping premiums capped.
If a rate cut materializes, liquidity conditions may ease, driving demand for risk assets and potentially lifting CME open interest. This could mark a return of institutional participation in bitcoin’s basis trade after a year of stagnation.
