Polymarket traders are betting that the U.S. government will stay shut past October 15, though they don’t anticipate it will exceed the record set during the first Trump administration in 2018–2019.
The market assigns a 72% chance that government operations will resume on or after October 15, based on $1.4 million in trading activity within a $4 million contract covering that timeframe.
A separate contract tracking shutdown length shows a 67% probability it will last 10–29 days, while the odds of it extending beyond a month—enough to break the historical record—stand at just 27%.
Some analysts suggest the political stalemate may have contributed to Bitcoin’s recent surge above $125,000.
Congress remains deadlocked, with recent funding proposals failing to secure the votes necessary to reopen the government.
