Bitcoin steadies near $119,000 as strong on-chain data and eased geopolitical tensions support the market. Polymarket traders increase the probability of a $125K Bitcoin breakout, while BTC dominance slips below 61%, signaling some rotation into altcoins.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $119,430 during early Monday Asian hours, gaining 1.24% amid continued bullish momentum following several institutional milestones and a new U.S.–EU trade agreement. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index climbed 2.37% to 4,099.18, extending its recent upward trend.
Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed on a trade framework in Turnberry, Scotland, lowering U.S. import tariffs on EU goods to 15%, down from a previously threatened 30%. The deal also includes $600 billion in EU investments into U.S. energy and defense over three years and aims to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian fuel. Tariffs on steel and aluminum remain at 50% for now.
Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization — reflecting the value based on the last movement of each coin — has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time.
Following last week’s all-time high near $122,700, BTC has maintained levels above $118,000. This recent rally spurred profit-taking among long-term holders but attracted fresh capital as well. BTC dominance has declined to 60.98%, indicating some funds are shifting into altcoins.
Last Friday, Galaxy Digital executed a $9 billion Bitcoin sale involving 80,000 BTC from a Satoshi-era investor, part of an estate planning move. Despite the size, the price held steady, demonstrating Bitcoin’s illiquidity and the market’s capacity to absorb large transactions without sharp volatility — a possible sign the market is gearing up for a supply-shock rally.
On Polymarket, traders now assign a 24% chance that BTC will reach $125,000 before July ends, up from 18% earlier in the week, reflecting growing confidence amid positive macro and on-chain trends.
Market Summary:
- BTC: Holding firm above $119K amid U.S.–EU tariff deal and shrinking short positions, according to CoinGlass.
- ETH: Rising 3% to $3,867.76 with strong fundamentals: 28% staked, exchange balances at eight-year lows, and increased new buyer inflows.
- Gold: Trading lower near $3,335 for the fourth day, as easing trade tensions reduce safe-haven demand ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting.
- Nikkei 225: Mixed performance as investors await updates on U.S.–China trade negotiations.
