Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CIO of Maelstrom, says Bitcoin’s historic four-year market cycle is no longer a reliable indicator of price movements. With global monetary policy turning increasingly accommodative and fiat liquidity set to expand, Hayes predicts the current bull market will persist.
Hayes noted that past Bitcoin bear markets—in 2014, 2018, and 2022—were driven by monetary tightening in major economies, not the four-year halving cycle. On each occasion, BTC dropped 70%–80% from peak levels. Similarly, CoinDesk highlighted in 2023 that Bitcoin’s so-called four-year cycle aligns more with changes in fiat liquidity than halving events themselves.
“Traders expect the bull run to end based on historical patterns, but the four-year cycle is dead,” Hayes wrote in his essay “Long Live the King!”. “Expanding fiat liquidity will keep Bitcoin rising.”
Why This Cycle is Different
- The U.S. is implementing growth-focused policies, while the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, with more reductions expected.
- Japan may adopt ultra-stimulatory economic policies under its new prime minister.
- China’s focus on ending deflation suggests liquidity will remain supportive rather than constrictive.
“Money will be cheaper and more plentiful. Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future,” Hayes added.
With supportive global monetary conditions, Hayes believes the historical four-year halving cycle no longer dictates Bitcoin’s trajectory, leaving the current bull market poised for continuation.
