VanEck has proposed a long-term framework suggesting bitcoin could be worth as much as $2.9 million by 2050. The research, published Thursday in a blog post titled “Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions,” was authored by Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research, and Patrick Bush, senior digital assets analyst at the firm.
The study presents a base-case valuation model projecting an annualized return of roughly 15% over the next 25 years. Rather than a price target, VanEck frames it as a valuation exercise, exploring how bitcoin could be used if adoption expands beyond its current role as a trading asset. The model relies on adoption scenarios instead of traditional equity valuation metrics.
Key assumptions include bitcoin serving as a settlement asset in global trade, potentially handling 5%–10% of international transaction volume, and gradual allocations by central banks as part of long-term reserve diversification. These scenarios are a major departure from today, where bitcoin plays a minimal role in trade settlement and is not held as a reserve by major central banks. VanEck emphasizes that reaching this outcome would require regulatory clarity, infrastructure development, and political acceptance.
The report highlights the volatility that could accompany such adoption, with long-term annualized swings projected between 40% and 70%, comparable to frontier markets. Even in a bear-case scenario, the firm still expects positive long-term returns, reflecting bitcoin’s growing structural relevance.
Macroeconomic trends are also central to the analysis. VanEck notes that bitcoin has historically aligned more closely with global liquidity trends than with equities or commodities, and its correlation with the U.S. dollar has weakened, suggesting its drivers are becoming increasingly global.
From a portfolio perspective, VanEck recommends small allocations of 1%–3%, which have historically improved risk-adjusted returns in diversified portfolios. While not low-risk, bitcoin’s volatility can be managed when position sizes are limited.
