U.S. September CPI Rises Softer Than Expected; Bitcoin and Stocks Climb
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September came in below expectations, reinforcing market bets that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in its final two meetings of 2025.
Despite the government shutdown limiting the release of economic data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month, below the forecast of 0.4% and down from August’s 0.4% gain. On a year-over-year basis, CPI rose 3.0%, slightly under the projected 3.1% and up from August’s 2.9%.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, advanced 0.2% month-over-month, versus the 0.3% forecast and August’s 0.3%. Year-over-year, core CPI remained at 3.0%, below the anticipated 3.1%.
Bitcoin (BTC $111,580.60) extended earlier gains following the report, trading around $111,600.
Traditional markets also reacted positively. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed nearly 1%, the 10-year Treasury yield fell two basis points to 3.97%, and the U.S. dollar weakened slightly.
Ahead of the release, traders had largely priced in a 100% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting, and roughly a 90% chance of an additional cut at the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year, according to CME FedWatch.
