Three Risks That Could Temper Bitcoin’s Push Toward $120K
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show strength following an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, signaling a potential rally toward $120,000. Prices have crossed the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), while the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) hints at a bullish cross—technical signals that could attract momentum-driven traders.
Despite the bullish outlook, three key factors may limit Bitcoin’s upside.
1. Bull Fatigue Near $115K
BTC is approaching a resistance zone above $115,000. Since July, rallies above this level have repeatedly met strong selling pressure, as indicated by long upper wicks on recent monthly candles. Although BTC briefly surpassed $124,000, price quickly retraced below $115,000, highlighting a potential hesitation among buyers.
2. Dollar May Have Priced in Fed Cuts
The U.S. labor market is weakening, and futures traders have priced in 70 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end and 125 basis points by July 2026. Despite this, the dollar index remains relatively stable around 97–98. If the dollar rebounds, it could cap gains for dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin. Tight Bollinger Bands indicate a potential sharp move, which may create headwinds for BTC.
3. Long-Term Bullish Trend in 10-Year Yields
Expectations of lower yields have fueled hopes of increased risk-taking, but long-term charts show a generational bullish shift in 10-year Treasury yields, limiting downside potential. The alignment of 50-, 100-, and 200-month moving averages signals higher yields ahead, potentially keeping fixed-income assets attractive and limiting capital flows into risk assets like Bitcoin. The two-year yield shows similar momentum, reflecting sensitivity to interest rate expectations.
Bottom Line
While BTC’s technical indicators support further gains, resistance near $115K, a potentially resilient dollar, and structurally higher long-term yields could all temper its rally toward $120,000. Traders should remain cautious as Bitcoin navigates these hurdles.
